January 2011
Chinese aircraft fleet and production is growing fast
Achieving the Difference has teamed with Reed Business Information’s Flightglobal to publish a global commercial aircraft fleet and production forecast.
Fleet growth in China is so great and of such interest that China is separated out from the six world regions studied in the new global Commercial Fleet Forecast produced.
It is widely accepted that growth in the commercial aircraft fleet is likely to shift to new territories - Asia Pacific, China, the Middle East and Africa. The report suggests that growth in the Chinese fleet will be enormous and follow a different pattern from that which brought the North American and European markets to maturity.
Over the period from 1999 to 2009, China’s GDP tripled when measured on a purchasing power parity basis. Over this same period, the active passenger aircraft fleet growth has also been dramatic. This is true in terms of the number of aircraft and the number of seats in the fleet. The growth in seat capacity is derived from increased fleet numbers as the average seats per aircraft has actually declined slightly. If strong economic growth continues, enormous growth in the passenger fleet is predicted over the next 20 years. By 2030, the fleet is forecast to total more than 5,500 aircraft with around one million seats.
China’s significance is also increasing as an aircraft manufacturing. It is currently developing two indigenous aircraft for the regional jet and narrowbody markets respectively.
Serious competition
China’s first indigenous jetliner programme to produce the 70-90 seat ARJ-21 has had some problems. Press reports suggest that it is a heavy aircraft and is not popular with target customers.
The larger COMAC C919 is a 168-190 seat aircraft aimed squarely at the narrowbody market currently the domain of Airbus and Boeing. This programme is looking much more promising and has secured launch orders from Chinese operators. It will utilise next generation engines that promise significant fuel savings over current aircraft.
China has aspirations beyond sales to its home market and seems likely to achieve them. It has expressed its desire to follow the C919 with larger widebody aircraft for long-haul routes.
Route to market
Many suppliers to the Western aerospace and aviation markets believe that they need to find their position in this new market to secure their own future growth. Since the aerospace and aviation industries of China are in development to reach global standards in technology, performance and safety, they recognise that they cannot do it on their own. Many of the major systems of these Chinese developed aircraft are from European and North American suppliers. For all, a key component of their winning strategy has been to source in China and build relations and understanding before winning customers there.
